Some Fresh Snow Up Top, More Coming Monday (Updated 6 p.m.)

Category: Weather
Update on Monday and Long-Range:

Monday the next storm moves in by afternoon.  We have a low breaking off from a trough moving through to the North that will pull up subtropical moisture as it moves inland.

That will bring in warmer air with high snow levels for Monday into Monday night.  They look to start around 8,000 feet briefly Monday and then jumping to 9,000.   Then falling to 8,000 Monday night.  The low moving inland has cold air from the trough it broke off from.  So as it moves inland it should crash snow levels Tuesday morning, and may see a heavy burst of snow even to lake base before the storm clears out Tuesday evening.

We do have a split on the latest forecast model runs for total precipitation.  We have half of the models with a high end of up to 1.5 inches of liquid over the mountain.  The other half have up to 3 inches of liquid over the mountain.

The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch for Tahoe for 1-2+ feet above 8,000 feet.  Averaging in the drier models and with the high snow level start, my forecast is much less, and hasn't changed much.  Right now I'm seeing 2-4 inches at the base, 3-6 inches at 7,000 feet, 8-13 inches at 8,000 feet, and up to 18 inches on the highest peaks.

If the wetter models are right then this forecast would increase by up to a foot or more up high.  For now I would just lean towards the higher end of the forecast this time as the models tend to trend wetter in the last 24 hours.

It looks like a fairly strong ridge builds in after this storm, so we may have a short mild and dry spell for about 5 days starting next Wednesday into the weekend.

There is still great model agreement and consistency on a trough pushing into the West Coast by the 15th with a strong Pacific jet stream taking aim at the West Coast.

The operational models continue to show a train of strong cold storms that week.  Let's hope the forecast holds.

Snow Report

4 inches being reported at 8k on the mountain with rain below 7500' overnight.  That is 2 inches below the forecast range we had yesterday.  There may be an inch or two more on the top peaks.

Watching the radar trends overnight the precip band pushed South of us a few hours earlier than expected and before the colder air moved in.

Forecast

Expecting clearing skies later today with highs in the 30's on the upper mountain to 40's at the base.

Sunday we could see some sun and highs in the 40's.

Monday into Tuesday a stronger storm moves in.  This storm starts with high snow levels again above 8,000 feet but they could fall to the base on Tuesday before it ends.

We could see 12-18 inches of snow with this storm above 8,000 feet and several inches above 7,000 feet.  We will have to watch the snow levels again.

We will fine tune the forecast tomorrow with the final snowfall forecast, and a more detailed long-range looking at the week of the 15th when we could see more storms.

-BA

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