Saturday we have nice weather with some sun, increasing clouds, and light winds. Highs into the 20's on the upper mountain, and 30's at the base.
Saturday Night - Monday System:
The next cold systems drop down from the north Saturday night into Monday. This system stalls to our north with heavy precipitation into Northern CA barely brushing us. We may only see clouds and some scattered snow showers through Monday. The latest model runs would average out to only give us 1-3 inches of snow Saturday night through Monday.
We will continue to watch the trend the next 2 days to be sure that the front doesn't push a bit further south bringing a chance for increased snowfall by Monday. The winds on Sunday should pick up, with ridgetop gusts to 40+ mph, increasing to 70+ mph Monday likely affecting upper mountain lifts.
Monday Night - Thursday Storm:
There will be two systems moving into the Pacific NW that will try to push the heavier precipitation over northern CA farther south into the Tahoe basin Monday night and Tuesday night. The forecast models are split on whether or not it happens Monday night or holds off until Tuesday night.
We will have to continue to watch this system closely the next few days to try and get a better handle on it. Taking the average of the latest forecast model runs, we could see some snow Monday night into Thursday morning before the storm moves out. Expected strong mountain top winds through Wednesday. Snow levels could hover right around the base by Wednesday.
Taking the average of the latest model runs we could see 10-20 inches of total snowfall at the base by Thursday afternoon, and 20-30 inches on the mountain over the 3 days.
We could see a break Thursday afternoon into Friday, with some sun and temperatures into the 30's on the mountain and 40's at the base. Clouds and winds could increase later Friday as the next storm approaches.
We could see a slow-moving storm move in by Friday night and last through most of next weekend. This system looks warmer and could have snow levels peak as high as 8,000 feet. The upper mountain could pick up significant snowfall next weekend, with rain at the base. Expecting some high winds as well.
The storms are expected to continue through the first 10 days of March.