Active Weather Week Starting Tonight

Category: Weather

Squaw and Alpine both picked up 2 inches of additional snowfall in the past 24 hours adding to the 2 feet of snow that feel this week.

We have an active week of weather ahead and there are a few changes to the forecast this morning.

Storm #1

The first change is that the latest forecast model runs are drier for the storm tonight into Monday.  We will see winds continue to blow strong up high today with gusts to 70+ mph ahead of the next storm.  Snow moves in this evening and continues through the day Monday.  Snow levels look to hover right around the base.  With the lighter precip we could see rain mix in down low.  Winds increase Monday with mountain top gusts to 100+ mph.  

We could see 6-9 inches at the base by Monday evening, and 7-13 inches on the mountain.

Storm #2

Another change this morning is that the atmospheric river taking aim at Northern CA behind this storm is speeding up.  So the heavy precip looks to move in right in its heels Monday evening.  This will bring heavy snow Monday evening but also snow levels rise sooner.  We should start as heavy snow down to near the base during the evening and then rise to 7000 feet by 10 p.m. and 8000 feet by 4 a.m. Tuesday.

We could see 4-7 inches at the base Monday evening before the switch to rain, and 9-18 inches on the mountain by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday the heavy precip continues with snow levels continuing to rise.  They may hit 9000 feet by Tuesday afternoon.  Winds still gusting up high over 90 mph.  We could see 7-11 inches of wet snow above 8000 feet Tuesday morning before a change to rain up to 9000 feet.

The good news is that the GFS and European models have both trended towards the heavy precip ending Tuesday night.  We may only see light rain showers Tuesday night through Thursday with a break possible in the precip.

Storm #3

Thursday night an approaching cold front pushes the AR back into the area with heavy precip returning.  As the front pushes closer Thursday night snow levels begin to fall.  They should start above 8000 feet Thursday evening by then fall steadily overnight and to near the base by Friday morning.  Winds should be strong again Thursday into Thursday night.

We could see 5-8 inches on the mountain Thursday night above 7000 feet.

Friday the GFS forecast model moves the storm out pretty fast.  The European model brings another wave behind the front and keeps snow showers going Friday before tapering off Friday night.  We could see a few more inches if the snow showers continue.

Break Next Weekend

We should finally clear out next weekend with cold air in place and sunshine.  That should bring good skiing conditions again after an active weather week.

Long-Range

Still watching for a large trough to push into the Eastern Pacific and to near the West Coast after mid-month.  Starting around the 16th we may see several colder storms start to move in.

BA